CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-04-11T07:36:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Apr 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1719 (N10E06,
Dai/beta-gamma) produced an M6/3b flare (NOAA Scale R2 (Moderate)) at
11/0716 UTC. The flare was associated with Types II (estimated shock
speed 1370 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a Tenflare (170 sfu), and an
Earth-directed full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had an
estimated speed of 1142 km/s, based on an analysis of LASCO and STEREO
coronagraph imagery. Region 1719 showed minor intermediate spot growth
prior to the M6 flare and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 1718 (N22W26, Dac/beta-gamma) showed little change
during the period and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (11 - 13 Apr)
with a chance for an M-class flare and a slight chance for an X-class
flare from Region 1719. There will also be a slight chance for a proton
flare from Region 1719.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached the 1 pfu event threshold at 11/0940 UTC
following the M6/3b flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached the 10 pfu event threshold (NOAA Scale S1
(Minor)) at 11/1055 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels during the period (11 - 13 Apr). The
greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
return to background levels late on 11 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decrease below event
threshold late on 11 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated minor changes in the solar wind flow. Speed ranged
from 347 to 460 km/s with an upward trend that began around 11/0900 UTC.
Phi data indicated an Away (+) solar sector during the period. IMF Bt
ranged from 2 to 8 nT. IMF Bz had a range of 7/-5 nT and was northward
during most of the period.
.Forecast...
No significant changes are expected in solar wind activity during 11 -
12 Apr. Today's halo CME is expected to arrive at Earth around 13/0500
UTC with significant increases in wind speed and IMF Bt expected on 13
Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet during 11 - 12 Apr with a
slight chance for unsettled levels. Field activity is expected to
increase to active to major storm levels (NOAA Scale G2 (Moderate)) on
13 Apr due to the arrival of today's halo-CME.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy